Will Kamala Harris’ Polling Lead Hold? A Polling Expert Weighs In
Will Kamala Harris’ Polling Lead Hold? A Polling Expert Weighs In
Kamala Harris is enjoying the momentum of a new candidacy, which has quickly pushed her into the lead.
Just three weeks into her campaign, the vice president has seen a surge in support, closing a gap that Joe Biden struggled to overcome during his run. However, the question remains: how stable is this lead?
It’s been an extraordinary month in American politics, where any single major event would typically create a temporary shift in the polls. Events like the July 13 assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the Republican convention, Trump’s selection of a running mate, Biden’s exit from the presidential race, and Harris’ choice of vice-presidential candidate have all played a role. But untangling the impact of each event to determine the true state of the race is challenging, and with the Democratic convention on the horizon, more changes could be imminent.
How has the race evolved at a deeper level? And if Trump regains the lead, what indicators will signal that shift before it’s reflected in the top-line polling?
A flood of surveys in the coming days will start to shed light on these questions, followed by two intense months of polling. Several key metrics have supported Harris’ early success: her rising favorability ratings and Trump’s shrinking lead on the economy, a core issue for the former president.
“Presidential campaigns are marathons, but this one has turned into a sprint,” said Neil Newhouse, Mitt Romney’s lead pollster during his 2012 presidential bid. “That tends to benefit the candidate who’s new on the scene.”
Here are five critical metrics to watch, beyond the top-line polling, to gauge the true state of the race:
Kamala Harris’ Favorability Rating
June 27: 39% (RealClearPolitics average)
Now: 45%
Voters are beginning to see Harris in a different light since she became the Democratic presidential candidate.
Over the past three years, Harris has faced a significant gap between those who view her favorably and those with an unfavorable opinion. That gap is now closing. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed that, in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, 50% of likely voters viewed her favorably, compared to 48% unfavorably.
However, this favorable perception might not last. Trump’s campaign has launched a wave of advertisements in battleground states, portraying Harris as “dangerously liberal,” which could negatively affect her favorability, especially as her record comes under closer scrutiny in the weeks following her campaign launch.
“Image is a precursor to ballot change,” Newhouse noted. “You’ll see her image shift before the polling numbers do, with her unfavorability ratings, particularly the strong ones, potentially rising.”
Trump, too, is enjoying a high-water mark in favorability — the best since the 2020 election — following the assassination attempt and Republican convention. This suggests that his numbers could also decline to more typical, less favorable levels.
“With Kamala Harris, it’s like ‘A Star is Born,’” said Mark Mellman, lead pollster for then-Senator John Kerry in the 2004 presidential race. “It’s real, it’s natural, but it’s not necessarily permanent. It’s possible that both candidates’ favorability ratings could dip a bit over time.”
Since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, the percentage of voters indicating support for one of the three independent or third-party candidates — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, or Jill Stein — has nearly halved.
While this is technically part of the broader polling picture, it also highlights a unique aspect of this election: more voters, fueled by Harris’ rise in popularity and Trump’s post-assassination and post-conviction boost in favorability, are inclined to support the main candidates. This is a shift from earlier in the race when up to a quarter of voters expressed dissatisfaction with both Biden and Trump.
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